Abnormal signals in the global hardware market

In early 2026, the global ICT (Information and Communication Technology) market experienced extremely unusual supply chain fluctuations. This was not simply cyclical inflation, but rather a "capacity grab" triggered by the rampant expansion of AI computing power.

Market metrics: The average market price of enterprise-grade DRAM and NAND Flash has seen a jump in the past three months.

Delivery time anomalies: The average delivery time for non-AI core network equipment (such as firewalls and L3 switches) has generally been extended, and some models may face planned replacements.

Structural price adjustments: Several global giants have released 2026 pricing updates, with average increases ranging from 15% to 25%.

These signals indicate that we are in the first year of "hardware stratification." For ordinary businesses and maintenance personnel, we are being relegated to "second-class citizens" in the supply chain.

Authoritative endorsement: The hidden truth in international reports

By cross-referencing three indicative reports, we can observe the causes of the "long period of scarcity":

Gartner (February 2026): The report points out that high bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging (CoWoS) are crowding out standard DRAM capacity; at the same time, the massive demand for power management chips (PMIC) and remote control chips (BMC) from AI servers is driving up global capacity for limited mature process technologies (28nm-65nm) at high premiums. Gartner predicts that some entry-level commercial devices will face end-of-life (EOL) risks before 2028.

S&P Global defines 2026-2028 as "The Long Scarcity." Their core insight is that the power distribution components (PMICs) and analog chips required for AI servers are precisely siphoning off mature process technology (28nm-65nm) capacity that originally belonged to automobiles (gasoline vehicles), smart home appliances, and medical devices.

TrendForce: Data shows that contract prices rose significantly in Q1 2026, and manufacturers have initiated preventative price adjustment mechanisms to mitigate crowding-out risks.

In-depth analysis: The "technology downgrade across the entire industry" triggered by the production capacity black hole

Before delving into the timeline, we must first clarify a core logic: why are devices without AI functionality also experiencing shortages and price increases? Many people mistakenly believe that this crisis only occurs in advanced process technologies (3nm/5nm), but in fact, AI servers are not only devouring the "brain," but they are also violently plundering the "internal organs" of the entire hardware world—namely, mature process components from 28nm to 65nm.

Component commonality: The number of power management chips (PMIC), voltage conversion modules (MOSFETs), and analog signal chips required for a single AI server is 5 to 10 times that of a typical network device. These "low-end components costing only a few dollars" will become the ultimate culprit hindering the shipment of millions of devices.

Profit Priority: When AI giants (such as NVIDIA and Microsoft) use massive amounts of cash to lock in capacity at wafer foundries, industries that also rely on these "basic components," such as networking, automobiles, and home appliances, are marked as "low priority" by wafer foundries due to their low profit structure and weak bargaining power.

Cause and effect chain: AI demand surges → mature process parts are exhausted → non-AI manufacturers cannot obtain parts → manufacturers initiate "model extinction" or "violent price increases" to maintain gross profit.

2026 Q1-Q2: A Period of Turmoil – A Planned Cleanup of Networking and Storage Devices

Cause and effect chain: Over-ordering of servers at the end of 2025 led to uncontrolled spot prices of components in early 2026. In order to maintain its profit commitment in its financial statements, the network equipment manufacturer decided not to absorb the costs itself.

Action: Manufacturers proactively removed benchmark models with high cost-performance ratios but low profit margins from the market and initiated structural price adjustments of 15%-25% for existing product lines.

Maintenance costs: In the first half of 2026, you will find that your original budget cannot buy the equipment you originally wanted. This is not due to a shortage of materials, but rather manufacturers "cleaning out" those low-end customers who are not making money.

2026 Q2-Q3: The Period of Exclusion – “Technological Degradation” in Healthcare and Smart Home Appliances

Causal chain: AI servers have entered peak mass production, sweeping up all PMICs on the market. The production cycle for these basic components is about 3-4 months, making it impossible to increase production immediately.

Action: Home appliance and medical equipment manufacturers, unable to secure key components, must choose between "raising prices by 30%" or "removing smart features." Most manufacturers will choose the latter to maintain sales.

Maintenance costs: The market will see a resurgence of "non-smart" traditional equipment. Appliances becoming less intelligent isn't due to technological regression, but because their components are being used to power AI servers.

2026 Q4 - 2027 Q1: Diffusion Phase – The Automotive Industry's "Second Delivery Collapse"

Causal Chain: Although automakers have long-term contracts protecting their core chips, a single vehicle still requires thousands of general-purpose analog chips and sensors. When the spot market for general-purpose chips is emptied by AI server and networking manufacturers at high prices by the end of 2026, automakers' Tier 1 suppliers will face a critical shortage of components, where "a single missing part costing a few dollars can prevent the entire vehicle from leaving the factory."

Action: The assembly line for ICE (Instant Interchangeable Circuit) vehicles will be shut down again at the end of 2026 due to a shortage of a single ECU part.

Maintenance Costs: In early 2027, orders that were originally scheduled for delivery were unexpectedly delayed by 12 months. This was a cross-industry resource devastation, making automobiles the most uncontrollable asset in 2027.

2027: A Period of Transition – Subscription-Based Ransomware “Holding Hardware Hostage”

Analysis source: According to Gartner and IDC's supply chain resilience research, vendors are accelerating their shift to the Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) model, using scarce quotas to control customers.

Cause and effect chain: After a year of hardware shortages, manufacturers discovered that controlling the "supply rights" was more profitable than selling hardware. They would prioritize allocating scarce hardware to customers who had signed long-term software subscriptions.

Maintenance costs: Buying equipment is no longer a one-time transaction, but a long-term "protection fee." Without a subscription contract, you won't receive hardware quotas. This is a bullying business model that exploits production scarcity to forcefully achieve its goals.

2028 Finale: The "New Normal" After Capacity Expansion

Many people ask: Is there no end to this hardware shortage caused by AI? The answer is yes. In 2028, hardware supply will see a significant "stabilization period." But this is not because demand has disappeared, but rather because the global semiconductor supply chain has completed a "belated balance."

1. Why will supply begin to stabilize in 2028?

There are three core supporting factors behind this recovery:

Capacity Compensation: The construction of new wafer foundries to address the material shortage crisis in 2025 typically takes three years. By 2028, these new production lines will officially enter mass production.

Efficiency improvements from standardization: Once DDR5 and PCIe 5.0 become the absolute mainstream in the market, upstream manufacturers no longer need to allocate production capacity to maintain older standards such as DDR4.

The end of panic buying: Enterprises have replenished their safety stock, and the market has shifted from "grabbing whatever is available" to "rational purchasing."

2. The truth after stabilization: The vanished "right to protect"

While the products will be available in 2028, equipment manufacturers will then begin their real strategic harvest. This isn't a price increase, but rather a "violent shift in the product cycle":

Early End of Life (EYW): Manufacturers will take advantage of the generational shift to implement "early component shortages" for models before 2024. The manufacturer's warranty commitment will still exist, but "indefinite shortage of repair parts" will become the norm, effectively achieving "forced replacement under the guise of component shortages".

Forced generational shift (SKU convergence and reshuffling): In order to optimize supply chain costs, manufacturers will not launch a wide variety of devices in 2028. They will push a few "next-generation models" using new process chips, while ruthlessly cutting off the supply of spare parts for older models.

The maintenance dilemma: You'll find that although there's plenty of stock, your old equipment has become an "orphan of maintenance." You thought things had stabilized, but instead, the manufacturer tells you it's time to replace the entire batch.

3. The New Normal in 2028: High Baseline Standards and High Mobility

Price lock-in: The stabilizing price in 2028 will be 20% to 30% higher than in 2024. Stabilization refers to "the cessation of price fluctuations," not "the decline in prices."

Variables: "Black Swan" events outside of standard projections

While a recovery in production capacity in 2028 is expected, there are still three "black swan" variables in the complex global supply chain that could disrupt all patterns.

Geopolitical triggers for "parts embargoes" and "black market"

Logic: The stability in 2028 is based on the assumption of "normal operation of the global supply chain".

Variable: If critical packaging materials or semiconductor manufacturing equipment are embargoed due to diplomatic conflicts, the hardware will enter a "black market" era, and prices will be determined by "who has the goods on hand".

Architectural takeaway: Your equipment procurement must have the flexibility of "brand diversification".

A single point of failure triggers a global catastrophe.

Variable: In this environment of "zero inventory and high contraction", if any key manufacturing node is shut down due to a natural disaster, non-core industries (such as general commercial IT) will be immediately cut off from supplies.

Architectural insight: True stability comes from "disaster recovery capability (DRP) that is independent of specific hardware specifications".

"Acupoint" cybersecurity attacks on the supply chain

Variable: Ransomware attacks targeting upstream semiconductor material suppliers or automated equipment suppliers could trigger panic buying, potentially causing prices to surge out of control again.

Architectural takeaway: Architects should keep systems "lightweight" to ensure that core business functions can still operate even when hardware resources are limited.

Conclusion:

Facing supply chain turmoil from 2026 to 2028, the users who heavily rely on "manufacturer proprietary agreements" will suffer the most during these two years. When hardware parts are out of stock and repairs are delayed indefinitely, proprietary agreements will deprive you of the emergency option of "switching brands," leaving you with no choice but to wait for the inevitable.

Watch the full video/audio commentary: https://youtu.be/fJI1wRX_vxE